Photo: AP; UPI
[From article]
No presidential candidate in polling history has been as hated by voters as Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are now.
But a review of the last eight presidential elections reveals that the most hated candidate in the spring almost always ends up winning in November.
This year’s top candidates have smashed all records for voter disdain. Clinton is “strongly disliked” by 37 percent of voters, topping the 32 percent who couldn’t stand George W. Bush in 2004.
And the disapproval of Trump has never before been seen in presidential politics, with 53 percent rating him “strongly unfavorable.”
The numbers were crunched by FiveThirtyEight, which released a set of charts comparing the “strongly unfavorable” ratings of presidential candidates stretching back to 1984.
Blame the huge disapproval numbers on a polarized electorate and the celebrity status of the front-runners.
But such negative numbers at this stage do not spell ballot-box doom.
Over the last 32 years, all but one of the major candidates who had a strong-disapproval rating higher than his opponent during primary season went on to win the popular vote.
[. . .]
But a review of the last eight presidential elections reveals that the most hated candidate in the spring almost always ends up winning in November.
This year’s top candidates have smashed all records for voter disdain. Clinton is “strongly disliked” by 37 percent of voters, topping the 32 percent who couldn’t stand George W. Bush in 2004.
And the disapproval of Trump has never before been seen in presidential politics, with 53 percent rating him “strongly unfavorable.”
The numbers were crunched by FiveThirtyEight, which released a set of charts comparing the “strongly unfavorable” ratings of presidential candidates stretching back to 1984.
Blame the huge disapproval numbers on a polarized electorate and the celebrity status of the front-runners.
But such negative numbers at this stage do not spell ballot-box doom.
Over the last 32 years, all but one of the major candidates who had a strong-disapproval rating higher than his opponent during primary season went on to win the popular vote.
[. . .]
While Trump might take heart from this historical lesson, he shouldn’t go measuring the Oval Office curtains just yet. There’s another set of numbers to take into account.
It’s net favorability — or the difference between the number of those who strongly disapprove and strongly approve of the candidate.
Since 1996, the candidate with the higher net strong-favorability number at this stage of the campaign has gone on to win the election.
Trump and Clinton set records here, too: both have the lowest net favorability numbers ever measured. Clinton’s minus-20 would be by far the lowest in history — if not for Trump’s, which is even worse at minus-41.
http://nypost.com/2016/05/08/trump-and-clinton-are-the-most-despised-candidates-in-history/
Trump and Clinton are the most despised candidates in history
By Mary Kay Linge
New York Post
May 8, 2016 | 2:47am
http://nyp.st/1Xf4SQa
Since 1996, the candidate with the higher net strong-favorability number at this stage of the campaign has gone on to win the election.
Trump and Clinton set records here, too: both have the lowest net favorability numbers ever measured. Clinton’s minus-20 would be by far the lowest in history — if not for Trump’s, which is even worse at minus-41.
http://nypost.com/2016/05/08/trump-and-clinton-are-the-most-despised-candidates-in-history/
Trump and Clinton are the most despised candidates in history
By Mary Kay Linge
New York Post
May 8, 2016 | 2:47am
http://nyp.st/1Xf4SQa
No comments:
Post a Comment