If this article and practice is true why is it that US and state courts allow psychologists and psychiatrists to make predictions about the future regarding the behavior of defendants? If such predictions are valid why not allow these same prognosticators to predict stocks and bond behavior and race track outcomes and even the lottery numbers? Under what rational system are these charlatans allowed to take a person's freedom based on personal opinion?
[From article]
"Statistics have long shown that large crowds of average people frequently make better predictions about unknown events, when their disparate guesses are averaged out, than any individual scholar — a phenomenon known as the wisdom of crowds.
[. . .]
Military and intelligence researchers have long studied ways to improve the ability to predict the future.
[. . .]
Another team, led by psychologists at the University of California and the University of Pennsylvania who are focused on asking questions in ways that minimize experts' overconfidence and misjudgment, said Don Moore, a professor at Cal-Berkeley.
[. . .]
"At some level, you cannot predict the future," Twardy said. "But you can do a lot better than just asking an expert."
http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111018/ap_on_re_us/us_crowdsourcing_study
University studies crowdsourcing for intelligence
By MATTHEW BARAKAT,
Associated Press
October 18, 2011
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